Film is on the way out.. lets face it.. just look at the last 20 years of professional production..
Three things that killed film:
- AFTRA merged with SAG, which meant films could be shot with "video" cameras which wasn't the case prior.
- 3D films happened, which forced theaters to buy digital projectors, negating the necessity of film prints. The studio's put a hard date on film prints ending, which wasn't fought hard enough by Kodak. Management at the time wasn't strong enough to keep things going like they are today.
- Kodak filed bankruptcy, which scared everyone into thinking film would die.
Kodak was unhealthy from years of horrible management. They never consolidated their assets until AFTER the bankruptcy.
Today Kodak is super healthy and for the first time in years, we saw 45 theatrically released films shot on film in 2018 (up from 33 in 2017) world wide, 17 of them US features. Plus a myriad of television, promotional, commercial, industrial and music video products. I have my finger on the pulse of the labs and frankly, all of them are doing pretty good. None fantastic, but that's because the print business is dead. If that were ever to come back, even in a small form, everyone would be doing great.
no company is permanently solvent BTW....
Well yes, an act of god could happen. Kodak no longer needs contracts with the studio's to stay alive. They've got a lean and trim business model which is working. They aren't going anywhere.
I like the look of film.. but its no more permeant than digital ..
Film has more dynamic range, with softer roll off and far better natural/smoother skin tones then any digital camera. If all you do is manipulate the crap out of your image, like every single show you've enamored about that shoots on the Sony cameras, then who cares what you use for a capture device. Soderbergh uses iPhones, for his heavily manipulated shows. I've seen both of them, they look no different on my display streaming online then anything shot with a fancy digital cinema camera. It's all about how much time is put into lighting and grading in post.
May I remind you that when they went to re-master Star Wars Episode II and III, they couldn't do so off the digital masters. The BluRay's are off film prints because in what, in the last 15 years, technology has advanced so rapidly, they couldn't even re-constitute the tape's. Today, technology is moving WAY faster then 15 years ago. Who says DNX, XAVC or even Pro Res will be around 20 years from now? I can tell you right now it won't be. Plus, do you know how many shows original masters are being saved? Try 5 - 10%.
With film, it sits on a shelf forever and unless you purposely throw it away, in 100 years the medium will be seen by the naked eye. So digitizing it is still possible because it's analog. Same can be said with any physical analog medium like Records.
it would make zero sense for a 20 year old freelancer starting their career to invest in a film camera .. as their main money maker..
This I agree with, but then again, I wouldn't suggest anyone spend more than 2 grand on a digital cinema kit when they start out. I think having a digital camera to start with is much better because you can see instant results and it's not about a particular "look", it's about shooting a lot without spending a lot so you can get your skills down.
Sorry guys but already in only a few years Netflix et el have taken over the industry.. times are changing.. for good or bad but they are..
Where I agree streaming is the future for the average consumer, I also think film in theaters will come back once someone can figure out how to market/amortize it as something "special". Here in So Cal every time there is a print showing of a new movie, it's sold out screenings. It's simply taking that and pushing it across the country with advertising and making sure projectionists are trained properly to give excellent presentations. Netflix is in serious financial trouble BTW and Amazon video isn't too far behind.
when the already few big hitters who demand to shoot on film retire to Palm Springs ..
WOW, I guess you have no idea who shoots on film. Why don't you take a second and google search the people who shoot on film. Nearly all of them are young filmmakers and the list is growing fast. I know this because well... I rent my cameras to those shows. My XTR Prod is on a theatrical bound feature right now, done by young people, the DP is 28 years old and only shoots film.