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Pizza RED predictions


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#1 Mike Brennan

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Posted 27 June 2007 - 04:52 PM

My predictions...

RED camera will have a few bugs.

RED post will have a few bugs.

RED viewfinder will be OK.

RED lenses will be OK

Lets say that there are 100 fan boys on RED user, well that leaves a couple of thousand cameras in the hands of others.

Introduction of f900, PD150, D20, Genesis have taught us that it takes at least a year for opinions about picture quality to polarise, with reality for non techies existing somewhere in the middle.

Introduction of HD caaeras has had little effect on high end rental of film cameras.
But the introduction of hundreds of production bought DV cameras destabilised the livelyhood of craft video cameramen, especially owner operators.


Can we draw a comparison with RED? The unknow factor with RED is the stated production capability of 700 cameras per month, available to a high end market.


Thats one new 4K camera every 18 minutes or so, Monday to Friday or about as long as you wait for a Pizza!

It is this manufacturing specification that is more likely to have an impact in our day to day working life than bayer patterns and cmos noise.


Mike Brennan
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#2 rory hinds

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Posted 29 June 2007 - 09:38 AM

Hey Mike

I'd say your calculation for Fanboy vs Others is out, judging from REDuser.net it seems to be drowning in a sea of speculation and guesses with cheerleader pompoms and sing song and very little useful information and serious content.

I think RED's market is very wide and at the end of the day it will be about the operator not the tool. Anyone can obtain a paint brush or DSLR these days it more what you do with it that counts.

I think RED will have less bugs than people would expect as they seem to have an excelent team dedicated full time to the project and are working both sides of production and post production.

I guess we don't know what impact RED will have as its all talk at the moment, they really need to delivery the camera to regular reservation holders first.

My 2p's worth...

Regards
Rory
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#3 thomas-english

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Posted 11 July 2007 - 06:08 PM

Hello Mike! how are ya!

Rory, when the pint?

yup I see RED as being more of the same. Just a lot more of it! Lot s cheaper and so so many people are buying them the rental price is surely going to crash completely (in london particularly). Remember the varicams a few years ago, you could rent one for the day for £150 for a low budget. everyone I know has got a few of these RED camera s on order, I figure I ll just spend 10 grand on a really nice set of primes.

RED s going to be great for low budget jobs where previously we have been using the PSTechniks and HDCAM but not sure if digital is going to kill film at the same speed as in the photography editorial/fashion/photojournalism world because of a few key differences I have noticed between the industries.

In photography the wastage to select your image is so high, a photojournalist will take 1000's of images before using one, a fashion photographer will take hundreds. We often only do 2 takes.

In photography there is no such thing as a video tap for the client, many photographers have told me they have had to go digital because the client wants direct involvement. It s got to the point now that the images are getting wired to teams of creatives for their approval on the actual shoot!

I also don t think it will dent in so much on the day to day wealth of TV work, where the kit is so busy it does not make a difference f it costs 20 grand or 60 grand it just matters how easy/fast/convenient to use it is, and what is easier and faster to use than a sony 750 or 900 . On my own in the jungle filming monkeys shagging I would rather a 750 with a tape and a 2/3rd inch lens than some flash drive 35mm plane etc etc

Edited by thomas-english, 11 July 2007 - 06:09 PM.

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#4 Steven Parker

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Posted 13 July 2007 - 02:59 AM

Yeah, sometimes you just want that security. I just got back from shooting in Sudan, thinking during prep I wanted the HVX, but once I was there I was satisfied with the old Beta SPs and a couple DVXs for time lapses... not really monkeys shagging, but pretty quick action nonetheless ;)

It's so easy to pick Red apart because they've opened their growth and development to the public eye so all the warts and all the bumps in the road are in full view.

The imagery looks great, really great - I would love to see some night exteriors, though. The workflow seems pretty solid - but Apple has to upgrade/patch FCP in the near future for native support. The compression seems to hold up really well - when you grab stills off RedUser.

Perfect? Not yet... but Red is on to something, and they are doing it right. 4K/2K/HD tapeless workflow? PL mount/Nikon/Canon/B4 optics mounts? About $30K with all accessories?!? RAW data port if you want to spend the extra $ ???

OPTIONS. That's where it's at, man, no doubt.

I don't think they'll actually be able to make exactly their most recently proposed delivery schedule, but heck - they're only a few months behind. The HVX200 was almost year late on its original street date.
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#5 jan von krogh

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 10:04 AM

with over 2000 units on order, red did manage to become the S35mm marketleader in sales from scratch.

if they continue this, there is another question at hands - what are the consequences for the other manufacturers in that market space.

I am surprised, that many people see red mostly as competition for sony and panasonic.
The japanese behemonts aren´t affected so much - main sales of their products go to the broadcasters, and red aims much more at feature/doc/commercial etc.
So i am rather curious about the impact on aaton, arri and panavison and how they will react. will panavision rent out "panavized" reds? many interesting questions come to mind.
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#6 Stephen Williams

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 11:37 AM

. will panavision rent out "panavized" reds? many interesting questions come to mind.


Hi Jan,

Without doubt.

Stephen
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#7 Max Jacoby

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 11:42 AM

So i am rather curious about the impact on aaton, arri and panavison and how they will react.

I don't think Arri is losing sleep over the Red, at least they didn't give the impression when I brought up the issue with some of their people I met with today.
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#8 Mitch Gross

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 05:10 PM

Let's be clear: RED is not a market leader in anything until they actually deliver product. A reservation list is one thing; shipped product is another. Will the guy who is #1500 on the list still want it by the time his unit comes up? We shall see.
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#9 jan von krogh

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 06:04 PM

Let's be clear: RED is not a market leader in anything until they actually deliver product. A reservation list is one thing; shipped product is another.

boeing and airbus might disagree.

hard facts: red has s35 order marketleader from scratch.
if they can´t delvier - different song.
if they do deliver...

Will the guy who is #1500 on the list still want it by the time his unit comes up? We shall see.

as of yet, you´ll get some nice offers for delivery position 1500.
we will see. probably (hopefully, i have 2 orders) this year.
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#10 jan von krogh

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 06:08 PM

Hi Jan,
Without doubt.
Stephen

there will be interesting PR - then, and if.

ps. you closed the photothread - because "it could be advertisement".
i would like to remind you, that on this particular board, many members asked to see the actual product, instead of 3d-cgi.
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#11 jan von krogh

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 06:11 PM

I don't think Arri is losing sleep over the Red, at least they didn't give the impression when I brought up the issue with some of their people I met with today.


depends who you are talking to.
arri as a company - certainly not.

arrilaser will benefit quite a bit from red.
arri camera however...

p.s.
the last time i met arri camera folks, they explained me, why red wasn´t possible. that was in may.
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#12 Werner Klipsch

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 07:31 PM

So i am rather curious about the impact on aaton, arri and panavison and how they will react. will panavision rent out "panavized" reds? many interesting questions come to mind.


Yes, well Panavision have a huge range of 35mm film cameras at a huge range of prices. But they all take the same lenses, and convenience aside, all will put pretty much the same pictures up on the silver screen. But when your budget is hundreds of millions of dollars, a few hundred dollars a day difference for the camera is not going to matter too much so why not take the luxury version!

Most of their money comes from all the other stuff they rent, like lenses, grip, lights, controllers and so on. I don't think Panavision would be interested in renting out Reds. More likely they won't rent their lenses with anything but Panavision cameras. And as far as I understand, it's the PV lenses people want, not so much the cameras. Otherwise, there wouldn't be Pan-Arris!

Also, I would be extremely surprised if Red competitors do not magically appear by and by!

If PV do anything at all, it should be a camera that produces real 4K RGB, not Bryce Bayer's no-good love child :lol: I think if a manufacturer of sunglasses can make a 12 megapixel CMOS camera, there must be real electronics companies who can make 36 megapixel ones! I'm sure they are just awaiting to see what happens. In any case, Panavision should not be expecting to take delivery of any REDs anytime soon.
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#13 Werner Klipsch

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Posted 20 July 2007 - 08:03 PM

the last time i met arri camera folks, they explained me, why red wasn´t possible. that was in may.

WHO "explained" that?

To my experience, the only thing anybody at Arri ever said "wasn't possible" was making a camera like this to sell for $17.500 and MAKE A PROFIT.

No person at ARRI whose opinion can be taken seriously would have said the RED itself was impossible. (Arri does not just employ engineers and managers, they also employ gardeners and ladies to bring beer and other refreshments to their workers. We should canvass their opinions as well? :lol: )

Earth to von Krogh: Arri already has the D-20 in operation! OK not quite the same resolution and features as RED is supposed to have, but not that different a camera really. No stretch to allow that somebody could do an improved version of the D-20.

If the question was could James Jannard esq himself with only a factory full of high tech equipment mostly for making eyeglasses frames and sunglasses make a camera like the D-20 or better, the answer would be "No, of course not!"

But if the question was could James Jannard esq himself with only a very large amount of money get SOMEONE ELSE to make him an improved version of the D-20, the answer would be "Of course he could!"
When the RED circus first came to town, all we ever heard about was the fantastic metal box Jannard was making to put the RED in. Nothing about the actual electronics which was really all that mattered.

So if Jannard wants to finance a Red Giant which shows every sign of collpase into a Black Hole from which no money can ever escape, that is his right. :lol:
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#14 Stephen Williams

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Posted 21 July 2007 - 02:36 AM

there will be interesting PR - then, and if.

ps. you closed the photothread - because "it could be advertisement".
i would like to remind you, that on this particular board, many members asked to see the actual product, instead of 3d-cgi.


Hi Jan,

You forget, early Panavisions were rebuilt Mitchells. Arri's 2c's, 3's, 435's, Mitchell Mk II's, Fries Mitchells & Aatons have all been Panavised to date, why would Panavision not fabricate a PV lens mount?

I think we have seen enough real photos, & who says that what we see today will actually hit the street as an identical product, 'did subject to change' end! I missed that if it did.

My best,
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#15 Mitch Gross

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Posted 21 July 2007 - 10:54 PM

Not to be pedantic, but let me state something rather simple. Most of you are not employees of or in priveledged business relationships with the companies you choose to discuss here. I'm talking about RED, Panavision and Arri. So this speculation has little to no basis in hard fact; it is heresay and supposition. Without contributing to this further, let me simply state that you're all crazy if you don't think that all these companies and plenty of others have seriously considered their options as to business relationships with one another, strategic alliances or even competitive shunning. I refuse to offer my knowledge or certainly any wild or even educated guesses. Honestly, you don't know.

May I suggest that we close this thread before it degenerates further into yet another pointless RED discussion. Pointless in that it is based on people talking about things with which they have no real knowledge.
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#16 chuck colburn

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Posted 21 July 2007 - 11:05 PM

Hi Jan,

You forget, early Panavisions were rebuilt Mitchells. Arri's 2c's, 3's, 435's, Mitchell Mk II's, Fries Mitchells & Aatons have all been Panavised to date, why would Panavision not fabricate a PV lens mount?

I think we have seen enough real photos, & who says that what we see today will actually hit the street as an identical product, 'did subject to change' end! I missed that if it did.

My best,


Exactaly Stephen.

And did any of those after market PV mounts on whatever camera cause a lawsuit to be issued by Panavision? It's just a lens mount . Jezzy pezzy, if I had a lathe and a mill and you wanted a PV mount on your BH Filmo I'd build one for you. On second thought it might be a bit of a squeeze on the Filmo. lol
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#17 Werner Klipsch

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Posted 21 July 2007 - 11:47 PM

Not to be pedantic, but let me state something rather simple. Most of you are not employees of or in priveledged business relationships with the companies you choose to discuss here. I'm talking about RED, Panavision and Arri. So this speculation has little to no basis in hard fact; it is heresay and supposition. Without contributing to this further, let me simply state that you're all crazy if you don't think that all these companies and plenty of others have seriously considered their options as to business relationships with one another, strategic alliances or even competitive shunning. I refuse to offer my knowledge or certainly any wild or even educated guesses. Honestly, you don't know.

May I suggest that we close this thread before it degenerates further into yet another pointless RED discussion. Pointless in that it is based on people talking about things with which they have no real knowledge.

Hmm. My English dictionary translates "Pedantic" as possessed of great knowledge that one wishes to impart, whether the receptors wish to hear it or not!
Not wanting to be pedantic either, it's pretty clear most of the people here do not have the option!

But it seems you have access to all the facts, but you aren't allowed to tell us any of them. Then exactly WHY do you invite possible torture and hard to resist attempts of bribery by telling us you have this information? Should you not have commented at all ?:rolleyes:

"let me simply state that you're all crazy if you don't think that all these companies and plenty of others have seriously considered their options as to business relationships with one another, strategic alliances or even competitive shunning. "

Well, you are right to a point. They would certainly have considered their options. But that's just a scarecrow you've put up to easily set fire to.
What we are speculating about is WHAT options (if there are any) they might follow.
I suppose you think nobody should invest in the stock market either, because we don't actually know what is happening in the company's boardrooms?
Or commodity brokers should not speculate on the price of cotton next year because they don't know what the boll weevils are thinking :P

"May I suggest that we close this thread before it degenerates further into yet another pointless RED discussion. Pointless in that it is based on people talking about things with which they have no real knowledge."

Well that would completly destroy RedUser.net for a start :D

Edited by Werner Klipsch, 21 July 2007 - 11:49 PM.

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#18 Stephen Williams

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Posted 22 July 2007 - 04:24 AM

Exactaly Stephen.

And did any of those after market PV mounts on whatever camera cause a lawsuit to be issued by Panavision? It's just a lens mount . Jezzy pezzy, if I had a lathe and a mill and you wanted a PV mount on your BH Filmo I'd build one for you. On second thought it might be a bit of a squeeze on the Filmo. lol


Hi Chuck,

The Filmo's in PV's inventory are often used as Crash cameras, I wonder what they might use in place of a Geneisis (possibly with a factory made Nikon mount).

Stephen
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#19 Max Jacoby

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Posted 22 July 2007 - 08:30 AM

As far as I'm aware there is nothing Panavision can legally do to prevent you from putting a PV mount on your camera. But since they are the sole people who rent out Primos and other PV lenses, I'd still clear it with them first, otherwise you'll end up having a camera with no lenses to put on it.
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#20 chuck colburn

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Posted 22 July 2007 - 11:45 AM

Hi Chuck,

The Filmo's in PV's inventory are often used as Crash cameras, I wonder what they might use in place of a Geneisis (possibly with a factory made Nikon mount).

Stephen



Hi Stephen,

Actually it's the Eyemo (35mm) used for crash cameras. The Filmo was the 16mm verstion. That's why it might be a bit tight on PV hardfronting it. lol
Mayby the Geneisis will become the "Eyemo" for this century! Guess they better get on designing some new crash housings.
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