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The "D" word.


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#1 Paul Bruening

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Posted 15 September 2008 - 09:22 PM

Well, they're finally using the bad word, "depression." I guess we wait to see if cash holds up. I remember as a kid seeing a script (small hand written contract, not screenplay) from the depression (1930's). Local folks had to write promissory notes to each other because currency had fallen apart. They would actually take each other's promissories as if they were currency. A note might float around town with more and more endorsements on the back.
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#2 Saul Rodgar

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Posted 15 September 2008 - 11:32 PM

Well, they're finally using the bad word, "depression." I guess we wait to see if cash holds up. I remember as a kid seeing a script from the depression (1930's). Local folks had to write promissory notes to each other because currency had fallen apart. They would actually take each other's promissories as if they were currency. A note might float around town with more and more endorsements on the back.


Actually, and if I understand you correctly, one could argue that during economically depressed times, people often turn to entertainment (i.e. movies) equally or more so than during economic booms. The cash is going to go to proven hit makers and comedy and all that stuff, but there are plenty of movies being made right now. I was just called by two shows, a medium budget Jackie Chan martial arts comedy and a 70 million Denzel Washington post apocalyptic drama . . . I am seriously debating getting on one, just to be safe. The economy could tank BIG TIME and not having a big paying job would suck . . . But I hate the long haul slog.

Edited by Saul Rodgar, 15 September 2008 - 11:33 PM.

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#3 Paul Bruening

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Posted 15 September 2008 - 11:41 PM

I had spent much of my life assuming that people depended more on frivolous and low cost entertainments to help them forget their financial woes. A few years ago I was doing an art history class paper on Busby Berkley musicals. While doing research I found out that 1/3 of the previous-to-depression theaters closed during the depression. About 1/3 barely scratched by, some by consolidating their orders under distribution coops. I was quite surprised to find that both studios and theaters actually shrank.

Probably not the kind of news anyone wants to hear. I would think that television would expand in a time like we're facing. Low-cost reality TV might find an even greater investment. Who knows the future?
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#4 Brian Drysdale

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 04:35 AM

Probably not the kind of news anyone wants to hear. I would think that television would expand in a time like we're facing. Low-cost reality TV might find an even greater investment. Who knows the future?


Could be a reality TV version of the "They Shoot Horses Don't They?" style dance marathon.
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#5 Ira Ratner

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 04:47 AM

"The economy is fundamentally strong."

Wait--I just crapped myself from laughing.
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#6 Nate Downes

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 07:38 AM

Just remember folks, former Senator Grahm claimed that this is all a "mental recession" and is all in our minds....
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#7 Walter Graff

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 08:31 AM

Don't worry, it will not be as bad as 1929. Consumer spending is down slightly (the biggest indicator of the economy). This shake out of the financial sector is long overdue. It started with Clinton who made it easy for institutions to loan money. That created greed. Consumers saw that they could get loans even though they had not collateral so the greed grew. Eventually someone said "Show me the money" and it wasn't there. But as you can see the government is letting this thing pan out over time. Had Bear Sterns, Lehman, etc all been allowed to show the truth at once we would have had 1929, but they made it so each financial institutions collapse occurred separate and over time. Now this week well have AIG's fall, saved by the government giving it the 75 billion it needs to stay afloat via more loans from two of hte more solvent banks. It's everyone's fault from the banks to the consumers who knew they couldn't afford the loans they were taking. Give it a year and we'll settle back into more stability. Don't count on any real improvement (positive for more than three quarters) for at least two years. Then of course whoever is president will try to take credit for it. Of course the president has little to do directly with the economy, but politics writes that a different way. The saying goes we blame the sitting president for the economy and presidents calmly say they made the economy good if they are lucky enough to be in office during a good time.
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#8 Serge Teulon

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 09:14 AM

....... Then of course whoever is president will try to take credit for it. Of course the president has little to do directly with the economy, but politics writes that a different way. The saying goes we blame the sitting president for the economy and presidents calmly say they made the economy good if they are lucky enough to be in office during a good time.



Does that mean that Bush has nothing to do with the recession?
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#9 David Rakoczy

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 09:33 AM

Does that mean that Bush has nothing to do with the recession?


Yes it does...

This is not a Democrat or Republican thing.. this is a Capitalist thing.

Walter, I always enjoy reading your logical, reality based economic posts after reading all the emotional, 'dramatic', completely biased posts... thanks for taking the time even though most won't listen or can't understand because of their Partisan blindness.

Have a great day Walter.
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#10 Richard Boddington

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 09:51 AM

"The economy is fundamentally strong."

Wait--I just crapped myself from laughing.


For once in his time as president Bush is right. Unemployment is 6.1% in the USA, interest rates are low, the commuter routes are still packed with drivers every day.

The collapse of this bank or financial institution or what ever it was will be forgotten in a week or less, just like the last one has already been erased from memory.

The media act irresponsibly in this situation as they always do, they LOVE to scare the crap out of people. Nothing sells papers or drives ratings better than fear, and the media hand out as much fear each day as they possibly can. Fear is their product, and they have cornered the market on it.


R,
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#11 Adrian Sierkowski

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:20 AM

To piggie back on the notion of fear, wired.com ran an article, yesterday on how terror fear could create psychosomatic episodes (http://blog.wired.co...orism-fear.html)

As for the economy, I would argue Walter and David are correct. In a capitalistic economy there has to be a "righting," scenario when the good times are balanced out by the bad times. And, while the collapse of banks and whole problem with home foreclosures is a terrible and immediate thing which in some way effects every American, and even goes worldwide in today's economy, we will come through it all and continues to live. When the riots and looting start happening I'll start to worry. Until then, it's just time for all of us to act more financially responsible; and while that may include forgoing the luxuries we have in past been used to, it doesn't quite mean that we should stockpile canned-goods and wait for the soup kitchens to open. But, I will say, I don't think I'll be taking any ski trips anytime soon (not that I could afford those in the best of times!)
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#12 Serge Teulon

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:26 AM

Yes it does...

This is not a Democrat or Republican thing.. this is a Capitalist thing.

Walter, I always enjoy reading your logical, reality based economic posts after reading all the emotional, 'dramatic', completely biased posts... thanks for taking the time even though most won't listen or can't understand because of their Partisan blindness.

Have a great day Walter.



David,

You are wrong in your assumption.
If my question touched a raw nerve, even though you obviously don't know where I'm coming from, then I'm sorry but that is your problem.
In future if you feel like making antagonising comments just send yourself an email.
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#13 Paul Bruening

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:27 AM

To piggie back on the notion of fear, wired.com ran an article, yesterday on how terror fear could create psychosomatic episodes (http://blog.wired.co...orism-fear.html)


I'm episodically crazy anyway. Does that mean that these will be good times for me?
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#14 Richard Boddington

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:29 AM

I don't think I'll be taking any ski trips anytime soon (not that I could afford those in the best of times!)


Ah Ha, you see you are giving into the fear ;) You should take a ski trip and help stimulate the economy, if every one ignored the media twits and started spending a little extra cash they can afford the economy would go back into more positive territory.

One other note....I love the graphics the news media comes up with over the shoulder of the anchor. They must have teams of people standing around pondering how best to scare the crap out of the viewer on sight.

They should just show a highly graphic image of a middle class person having their head cut off by a guillotine every time they talk about the economy. The more blood and gore the better, from the media's perspective. I'm amazed how the media still consider themselves to be in an honourable profession.

John Stewart does a good job every night of pointing how the media has just become a silly group of people by cutting all of their commentary on the same subject back to back.

R,
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#15 Adrian Sierkowski

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:32 AM

Paul; It may help the crazies (myself included) fit in a bit better. :lol:


Also one thing; I do think it Can be a Democrat/Republican thing but only insomuch as it effects consumer psychology. I mean, in the end, it seems to me that the American economy is driven to a high degree by consumer's spending... So ye,s I can see the election of x or y party effecting the economy directly in terms of consumer psychology, indirectly in terms of legislation, and abstractly in terms of foreign policy. Of course; I personally think all politicians are a bit crooked, no matter how good they look, so I remain cynical on who will do a better or worse job.
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#16 Keith Mottram

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:40 AM

For once in his time as president Bush is right. Unemployment is 6.1% in the USA, interest rates are low, the commuter routes are still packed with drivers every day.

The collapse of this bank or financial institution or what ever it was will be forgotten in a week or less, just like the last one has already been erased from memory.

The media act irresponsibly in this situation as they always do, they LOVE to scare the crap out of people. Nothing sells papers or drives ratings better than fear, and the media hand out as much fear each day as they possibly can. Fear is their product, and they have cornered the market on it.


R,


your being sarcastic right?
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#17 Chad Stockfleth

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:44 AM

My city got hit by hurricane leftovers this weekend and 90% of us are without power.

This has led to huge lines at any gas station, grocery store or restaurant that has power. It feels like "The Depression".

At the same time, it has brought the best out of a lot of people. Everyone is out on the street, talking, riding bikes, throwing football. Many are getting together for "empty the fridge" potluck.

It harkens back to simpler times which is actually quite nice.

Perhaps if there is a "real" depression it could spur us towards more community oriented living.

Of course there will also be death and financial ruin.....
:blink:
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#18 David Rakoczy

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 10:55 AM

David,

You are wrong in your assumption.
If my question touched a raw nerve, even though you obviously don't know where I'm coming from, then I'm sorry but that is your problem.
In future if you feel like making antagonising comments just send yourself an email.



Serge, the only thing in there that was meant for you was the "Yes it does"... the rest was regarding 'other' posts... hence the sentence breaks,

Ahhh, the joys of posting :rolleyes:

Have a great day Serge!
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#19 Bob Hayes

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 11:20 AM

I really feel that we are suffering the consequences of deregulation of the financial markets. I believe Capitalism is a great system but it needs supervision and oversight. The idea that these huge complex systems can regulate them selves is such a failed belief and the American people suffer every time.

Walter you obviously have a terrific grasp of economics and it is well stated. I feel it is also well seasoned with typical Republican philosophy.

?It started with Clinton who made it easy for institutions to loan money.?
It?s Clinton?s Fault. Even though there was a huge push for deregulation by the Republicans and Phil Gram blame Clinton.

?It's everyone's fault from the banks to the consumers who knew they couldn't afford the loans they were taking.?
It?s everyone?s fault. Even though these huge financial institutions gamed the system, lobbied heavily for deregulation, and were profiting from this mismanagement.

?The saying goes we blame the sitting president for the economy and presidents calmly say they made the economy good if they are lucky enough to be in office during a good time.?
Clinton took credit for a great economy created by REAGAN (followed by heavenly fanfare) and now Bush is a victim of this horrible economy created by Clinton.

This banking collapse is another of many examples like 9/11 and Katrina where they Bush administration just didn?t see it coming.

In 2004 Chris Swecker, the FBI official in charge of criminal investigations said of fraud in the mortgage business "It has the potential to be an epidemic". Do you think the White House was informed? In the 90?s there were 1000 FBI agents assigned to Banking Fraud. In 2007 that number had been reduced to 100.

And as for you Richard
?The media act irresponsibly in this situation as they always do?
There is a huge push by the right to attack the media. You can?t trust the liberal media etc. Wake up. The press is one of the few institutions that level the playing field between the powerful corporations and the average citizen. The Founding Fathers felt it was so important they put freedom of the press in the first amendment. Is the media flawed? Sure. But without the media our information is spoon fed to us by the people of wealth and power.
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#20 Saul Rodgar

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Posted 16 September 2008 - 11:37 AM

I really feel that we are suffering the consequences of deregulation of the financial markets. I believe Capitalism is a great system but it needs supervision and oversight. The idea that these huge complex systems can regulate them selves is such a failed belief and the American people suffer every time.


Thanks Bob, I was just going to write this very same thing, but couldn't have said it more succinctly.

While I am guilty of being pretty partisan, there is no denying that Bush has moved to deregulate the financial sector at a greater speed and degree than any of his predecessors, to put it midly. I am sorry, boys, but facts are facts. This one from the Wall Street Journal, not any "liberal" news outlet:

http://online.wsj.co...tml?mod=djemITP
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