Ack! was hoping it might be something more to do with awards ceremonies. "...and the Oscar for best kitten video goes to..."
Oh well, in my imagination the world is much more entertaining.
Freya, glad you asked...
Perhaps what I'm about to say is redundant, but I think they're going to have that cosy little norm rather rudely shattered over the next year or two.
Hmmm. Depends on what you mean. I think it will take more than 2 years too, but Hollywood have already severely undermined their current business model, and it's questionable how long they can prop things up for, but they are doing a great job so far at keeping the balls in the air.
I think the big threat from the internet is more towards television that cinema per se and the internet is likely to remain as just a source of advertising and promotion to the studios. Despite the theoretical lower costs of online rentals, revenue is a lot lower. I don't see it bringing in big money. If we look at other conventional media, we see that revenues from internet activity are far below that of the conventional models, and they are far more competitive to boot. I'm not expecting video to be any different.
In cinema I expect to see a greater reliance on big blockbuster mega releases to desperately get peoples attention and drag them in. Smaller releases OTOH becoming even less viable. This is already taking place of course.
At some point something will break tho.